As now over a year and half has passed since then, and the spate of food riots has subsided, I think it is now obvious that I was right. While rising some in the last few years, the longer trend of food prices over the last 100 years has been downward in developed economies.

Your perspective ignores many other threats … for example, scientists have linked the exponential growth of environmental degradation (deforestation, toxic soil, soil erosion, drought, waste) to the collapse of great ancient civilizations (Roman, Greeks, Mayans, Aztecs, Easter Island, Norse of Iceland, Minoans) … all of which were regional.

Today’s ultra-complex and ultra-connected world is global – so, just as the economic collapse was worldwide, so will the social and environmental collapse … a global economy driven by the growth of consumerism draws on the extraction of ever increasing quantitites (exponential growth) of natural resources (clean water, soil, air) and produces ever increasing (exponential growth) tons of virtually indestructible waste (toxic man-made chemicals (POPs, medications, etc.), natural minerals, e.g., lead, mercury, etc., CFCs, plastics, nuclear, and more)

What seems like a problem that can be solved without resorting to zero population growth and a drastic change in lifestyles is an illusion … that it took 300 years to get near this tipping point is part of the illusion … the basic arithmetic of exponential growth is in effect, whether it’s a rapid rate or a slow rate.

The metaphor of the lily pad that doubles every day for 30 days in a pond helps people visualize the problem of exponential growth in the wrong direction … on day 29, the pond is still only half full. Yet, “suddenly and unexpectedly”, on day 30, the pond is full. Doubling or tripling the size of the pond only buys the pond’s owner two or three days. Thus, while scientists cannot predict the exact day we are at in 2008, knowing that we are heading in the wrong direction ought to be enough to motivate leaders to change directions. Yet, most of today’s leaders are short-term thinkers, who have been seduced by the acquisition of power and prestige, just as the leaders of ancient civilizations … they have only to recall the P.B. Shelley’s “Ozymandias” … we ignore the rapid rate at which climate change is accelerating (rapid exponential growth) at our peril … we are much further in the curve than we were even last May … we stand on the edge of the tipping point of collapse … our waiting game is about to end.

Read the Food and Agriculture website http://www.fao.org for its revised perspective …

Record harvest but troubles loom ahead 06-11-2008

Financial crisis will hurt agricultural markets
6 November 2008, Rome – World cereal production is expected to hit a new record this year as high prices boosted plantings under generally favorable weather conditions, FAO said today in the latest issue of its “Food Outlook”, a bi-annual commodity publication. World cereal production is forecast to be large enough to meet anticipated utilization in the short-run, and help replenish much depleted global stocks.

But the agency warned that the current financial crisis will affect agricultural sectors in many countries negatively, including those in the developing world.

Greater uncertainty

This year’s record cereal harvest and the recent fall in food prices should, therefore, not create a false sense of security, said Concepcion Calpe, one of the report’s main authors.

“For example, if the current price volatility and liquidity conditions prevail in 2008/09, plantings and output could be affected to such an extent that a new price surge might take place in 2009/10, unleashing even more severe food crises than those experienced recently,” Calpe said.

“The financial crisis of the last few months has amplified downward price movements, contributed to tighten credit markets, and introduced greater uncertainty about next year’s prospects, so that many producers are adopting very conservative planting decisions,” Calpe said.

The report stresses that most of the recovery in cereal production took place in developed countries, where farmers were in a better position to respond to high prices. Developing countries, on the contrary, were largely limited in their capacity to respond to high prices by supply side constraints on their agricultural sectors.

Implications for the poor

The sharp 2007/2008 rise in food prices has increased the number of undernourished people in the world to an estimated 923 million. Lower international commodity prices have not yet translated into lower domestic food prices in most low income countries.

“There is a real risk that as a consequence of the current world economic problems people will have to reduce their food intake and the number of hungry could rise further,” Calpe said.

Long-term challenges

The report says that world agriculture is facing serious long-term issues and challenges that need to be urgently addressed. These include land and water constraints, low investments in rural infrastructure and agricultural research, expensive agricultural inputs relative to farm-gate prices, and little adaptation to climate change.

To feed a world population of more than nine billion people by 2050 (around six billion today) global food production must nearly double.

Population growth will take place mostly in developing countries and for the greater part in urban areas. A shrinking rural work force will thus have to be much more productive. This will require more investments in agriculture, machinery, tractors, water pumps, combine harvesters etc., as well as more skilled, better-trained farmers and more efficient supply chains.